PARAMARIBO, Suriname, CMC – The Bureau for the National Debt says Suriname is showing signs of economic growth, though slowly, predicting that it could reach 2.3 percent this year, up from 1.3 percent last year.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast economic growth of 2.3 percent, rising to three percent in 2024.
In its quarterly report ‘Overview of Macroeconomic Developments,’ the Bureau for the National Debt, which analyzes international and local economic developments, noted that gold production in 2022 continued to increase since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020.
However, production is still below pre-pandemic levels, with the mining sector remaining the primary source of funding for foreign transactions and the build-up of international reserves.
The Bureau said the increase in gold production last year was mainly observed at the large mining companies, where there was an increase of 4. percent.
Rosebel Gold Mines (RGM) recorded an increase in production of 18.6 percent, including the Saramacca Mine. In total, a gold production of about 3.4 percent was recorded, with production being 43,100 kg.
Newmont Suriname did less well with the Merian Mine, where production in 2022 compared to 2021 decreased by approximately 7.8 percent.
The decrease has everything to do with the depletion of alluvial gold, which means that mining has to be done deeper. According to the Bureau, the gold production of this multinational is expected to decrease further this year, 2023.
The Bureau also noted that there had been better figures in petroleum production. In 2022, production increased by 3.2 percent to 6.2 million barrels, and the optimization of the existing wells by applying the high fluid rate strategy led to an increase in crude oil production.
On the other hand, the refinery’s production has decreased by 4.6 percent compared to 2021. The lower production is due to refinery maintenance works in the first and third quarters of 2022.
Mining revenues and government borrowing abroad have increased the international reserve by approximately US$202 million to US$1,195 million in 2022.
The Bureau for the National Debt notes that due to excess economic liquidity due to high government spending on other subsidies, the Suriname dollar (SRD) exchange rates against the Euro and US dollar rose significantly in the second half of last year.
“The OMO (Open Market Operations) policy of the CBvS (Central Bank of Suriname) has not been able to neutralize the excess liquidity since this period,” it said, adding that exchange rates in the first months of 2023 have still not stabilized.
According to the Bureau, this trend indicates the public’s lack of confidence in policies, authorities, and the economy.
It said import inflation, exchange rate depreciation, and increased energy rates in June led to very high year-end inflation in 2022. Inflation has been pegged at between 61 and 52 percent in the past three years.
Regarding the national debt, the Bureau said it will have increased by 51 percent in 2022.
It said the reasons for the increase include increased drawdowns compared to repayments and rising arrears, and exchange rate depreciation.
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