BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says drier than average seasonal rainfall and fewer than regular wet days and wet spells are expected across most regions for the three months ending in July.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, released here on Friday, CariCOF said the ongoing weather pattern from May to July could delay the onset of the rain season. “However, wetter than normal seasonal rainfall and an increase in wet spells are expected along The Guianas, Cayman Islands, and The Bahamas, where marginal flash flood and soil erosion potential may develop.”
CariCOF said that extreme wet spells are not expected to feature more than usual for the region, noting that “in general, temperatures are expected to be close to average across the region with an anticipated reduction in dry spells.
“Incursions of Saharan dust typically peak in frequency at this time,” it added.
CariCOF said that as of April 1, moderate or worse, shorter-term drought has developed in northeast Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Vincent, while moderate longer-term drought has developed in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (the ABC islands), Antigua, the northernmost and southeastern Bahamas, Barbados, southeast Belize, western Cuba, Dominica, the eastern Dominican Republic., Guadeloupe, southwest Haiti, east Jamaica, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines, and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI).
It said long terms drought is evolving in the ABC Islands, Barbados, most of Belize, western Cuba,
Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, Saint Martin, and the USVI might develop or continue the northern Bahamas, parts of eastern Belize, St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname north.
CariCOF warned that wildfire potential is expected to peak in May with few wet days.
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