BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) Wednesday said that the local economy is expected to register strong growth this year, continuing the recovery following the slump caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
CBB Governor Dr. Kevin Greenidge told a news conference that for the first quarter of 2023, the economy grew by 6.4 percent, its eighth consecutive quarter of expansion.
“The economy is now larger in size than in 2019, in terms of nominal value, including the effects of inflation, and virtually on par in real value, abstracting from the effects of inflation,” he told reporters as he reviewed the Barbados economy for the first three months of this year.
The CBB predicts that the economy will register between four and five percent growth for 2023, with continued expansion in tourism and private sector investments being the key to driving this performance for the rest of the year.
It said the government’s ongoing public investment program should provide further impetus to the economy.
But the CBB said that downside risks to the future outlook include a possible slowing of the global economy should policymakers fail to get the right balance between containing inflation and impeding global demand.
“An intensifying of geo-political tensions with possible adverse effects on supply chains also poses a risk to the growth projection. On the upside, improvements in the cost of air travel will strengthen the performance in tourism, further accelerating growth,” Griffith said.
The Central Bank Governor said that inflation is expected to moderate over the remainder of the year as international commodity and oil market improvements filter into the domestic market.
The latest World Economic Outlook report released this month projects a decline in fuel prices in the region of 24 percent in 2023 and that the continuation of the social compact should serve to contain price increases further.
But the CBB notes that upward inflationary pressures are likely to come from the increased local demand for services as the economy continues to expand. Significant headwinds remain with the recent OPEC+ announcement to cut oil production.
It said that the Barbados government recently concluded its budget for the 2023/24 fiscal year, which projects a primary surplus of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), consistent with the target under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported by Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) Plan 2022.
Greenidge said that while the Mia Mottley administration did not impose new taxes, it focused on growing the economy through structural reforms.
“The budgetary measures, in tandem with the initiatives to mitigate inflation, that the government has extended, the extension of the VAT complimentary basket and the reduction in VAT on electricity, and the parliamentary estimates for the financial year 2023/24, should aid in achieving the desired primary surplus.
“This outturn aligns with the primary balance path that underpins the long-term debt anchor of 60 percent of GDP.”
Greenlight said that the achievement of the 3.5 percent primary surplus is predicated on continued growth for the remainder of the year, tempered inflationary pressures, and ongoing structural reforms.
“In this poly-crisis world, a shock such as a natural disaster or the like could derail the growth prospects, resulting in lower revenues and the need to adjust expenditures. Continued emphasis on public sector reform is also essential in mitigating this.
“Government’s exposure to contingent liabilities while freeing-up revenues for necessary investment. The planned transformation of a number of SOEs (state-owned enterprises) that pose financial risk reflects the government’s commitment to restrain unplanned spending on transfers.
“Government’s overall fiscal position for the financial year 2023/24 is projected to be a deficit of 1.6 percent of GDP, which will be funded mainly by MDIs (multilateral development institutions) inflows. At the same time, there is a renewed effort to revitalize the domestic capital market with a second issuance of the BOSS+ bonds and the introduction of innovative instruments such as reverse options,” Greendisge said.
He told reporters that Barbados’ external position is expected to remain buoyant, with international reserves maintaining a more than adequate import cover and providing a buffer against external shocks.
“On the outflows side, lower prices for imports, particularly in the food & beverages and fuel categories, should temper the reserve losses. However, such savings are likely to be offset by a pick-up in domestic demand, given the acceleration in economic activity.
“At the same time, the continued revival of the tourism industry should boost travel receipts, which, along with multilateral financing and tourism-related projects, should bolster reserve accumulation.”
The CBB Governor said that over the medium term, strengthening the country’s external position would necessitate mitigating external vulnerabilities, which hinges on boosting competitiveness, ensuring food security, and building resilience to climatic events and other shocks.
“The path toward renewable energy is necessary to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels while at the same time, redirecting foreign exchange outlays from fuel purchases towards the green transition of the economy. Additionally, the focus on renewable energy and climate resilience impels further domestic credit expansion, as households and firms access green financing.”
Greenlight said that with the continued economic expansion, non-performing loans should maintain a downward trajectory. He said capital and liquidity levels should remain well above prudential benchmarks, providing adequate buffers to safeguard against shocks stemming from global events, which is particularly important following the failures of Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank in March of this year.
“Our ability to achieve the projected economic growth and continue to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio partly depends on the aforementioned external factors. However, we have a significant role as individuals, businesses, and collectively as a nation.
“We must increase productivity and improve business efficiency to enhance our international competitiveness. We must convert the recovery we have achieved into sustained and inclusive growth that would lead to general economic development, which will redound to benefit us all,” the Central Bank Governor noted.
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