BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is forecasting a waning El Niño event in the Pacific and near-record warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures for the three-month period from March to May this year.
El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the “warm phase” of a more significant phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
CariCOF, in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook publication, said. Therefore, the region is set to transition into a much warmer than usual heat season with recurrent heatwaves as early as April.
“March may still be characterized by high evaporation rates and an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, as well as the further buildup of any ongoing drought and increasing wildfire potential in the far northwest and the southeast.
“By contrast, from April to May, rainfall intensity and shower frequency are likely to rise sharply, resulting in a high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and associated impacts in most places, except the ABC (Aruba, Bonnaire, and Curacao) Islands,” CariCOF added.
It said that as of February 1 this year, long-term drought has developed in Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname, northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Windward Islands.
In addition, long-term drought at the end of May 2024 is evolving in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland portions of French Guiana, northeastern and inland portions of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, northern Suriname, and might develop or continue in the north of Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, coastal French Guiana, northern Guyana, Tobago.
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