BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Monday said North Atlantic temperatures should remain above average, continuing to fuel extreme tropical cyclone activity.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOF said that from October to December this year, there will be amplified heat stress through October with higher temperatures, humidity, and heatwave frequency. It said that this will fuel a record-breaking Caribbean heat season.
CariCOF said that there will also be increased shower intensity during the peak of the wet season, leading to a high potential for flooding and cascading hazards.
“However, a moderate to strong El Niño in the Pacific should dampen rainfall frequency in Belize and the southern Caribbean, where drought concerns arise. Heat and drought are a growing concern in the coastal Guianas, as is flood potential through December,” CariCOF added.
As of September, severe, or worse, short-term drought has developed in Grand Cayman, French Guiana, northern Guyana, eastern Suriname, Tobago, and the US Virgin Islands.
Long-term drought to the end of November is evolving in western Belize, Dominica, southern French Guiana, Martinique, southeast Puerto Rico, St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago. It might develop or continue in Aruba, Bonnaire and Curacao, Barbados, French Guiana, Grenada, St. Lucia, and Sint Maarten/St-Martin.
CariCOF said short-term drought to the end of December, is evolving in central and southern French Guiana, Suriname, and Trinidad and might develop in Dominica, Guyana, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and northern French Guiana.
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