CARIBBEAN-Forecasters predict ‘hyperactive’ hurricane season.

GEORGETOWN, Guyana, CMC — Regional forecasters Thursday predicted a “hyperactive” 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season with up to 29 named storms, 13 likely to become hurricanes, including seven major hurricanes.

The Barbados-based Caribbean Institute of Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), presenting its Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forums (CariCOF), said historical activity in the region is similar to the years 2010, 2013, 2020 and 2023.

It said modules suggest a 66 percent chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean. It added that 2024 resembles 2010, which began as the driest year in the eastern Caribbean but ended as the wettest on record, including the deluge and devastation wrought by Hurricane Tomas.

Presenting the outlook, Komalchand Dhiram, a Specialist Meteorologist at the Hydrometeorological Service of Guyana, said that Saharan dust is likely to impact cyclone activity during the earlier part of the hurricane season.

“… with no intrusion or minimal intrusion of the Saharan dust, a hyperactive 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is anticipated,” he said, noting that the CIMH can only forecast Sharan dust intrusion up to two weeks in advance.

“If there is to be frequent Saharan dust, it will delay the onset of these activities but not necessarily reduce their impact or intensity. And that is because as we move away from August, the intrusion of Saharan dust decreases,” Dhiram explained.

He said that historically, the Caribbean had seen an average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, adding that different forecasting agencies had settled on similar numbers.

Last month, Colorado State University’s outlook predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, the same as Tropical Storm Risk’s forecast released four days later.

According to The Weather Co.’s May 16 outlook, the forecast includes 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has yet to release its forecast.

“Looking at these numbers here, there is a high consensus of approximately in the mid-20s named storms, of which close to 13 are hurricanes and major hurricanes, seven,” Dhiram said.

CIMH climatologist Dr. Cédric Van Meerbeeck, who also spoke at the forum, urged participants not to let the forecast give them “nightmares.”

“It’s not looking good. We all realize that. What’s more important is that we understand together what we’re going to face, what we’re likely to face, and how we’re going to solve the problems that are coming along with it,” Van Meerbeeck said.

He urged participants to remember that the record warmth that the region is experiencing is likely to continue.

“That means lots of excessive heat. … because of all the heat in the ocean that needs to exit the ocean, the hurricane season forecasts are showing hyperactive season,” he said, noting that there can be an interplay between the Saharan dust and cyclone activity.

“The more dust episodes we have, the weaker the first half of the hurricane season will be. But the second half shouldn’t be affected too much. So it will still be active during the peak of the season and after that.”

Van Meerbeeck said that Saharan dust could also affect flooding in the region.

“Unless we get a lot of dust episodes, we’re gonna see lots of episodes of flood-creating or flood-triggering extreme rainfall,” he said.

“Drought relief is coming as soon as the wet season starts. But, unfortunately, because we cannot advance, we can’t tell you when exa at this time this wet season is starting this year.”

He will start by saying that in several Leeward Islands, the rains return “with a bang,” and some people may say this means a replenishing of the water that the heat sucked out of the soil.

“But not so much,” Van Meerbeeck said, adding that it will simply run off if the soil is arid and the rain comes heavily.

“So unless we find a way to capture that water, we will still have only progressive drought relief.”

Fielding questions about a potentially hyperactive hurricane season, Van Meerbeeck said people should not be frightened.

“Don’t be frightened, be prepared. And if, like me, you believe in God, you pray as well. But be prepared is the answer.”

He noted that no guarantee being being being prepared is not guaranteed to save someone from a category-five hurricane or the deepest flood ever.

“But it does make it safer in general. So be prepared,” he said, noting that Hurricane Tomas in 2010 was fuelled by the same climatic conditions being seen this year, but there is no way to tell if 2024 will be a repeat.

“I’d be a trillionaire if I could, who could say there’s gonna be a hurricane Tomas this year,” Van Meerbeeck said.

Adrian Trotman, head of meteorology and hydrology at CIMH, said he was concerned about the impact of the atmosphere releasing all of the pent-up energy after the Sharan dust subsides.

“Normally, it releases itself. We have that as well. That is something that also concerns me. That happened in 2010 —ame 2010. The Atlantic said, ‘Wow, good, the drought is done, the El Nino is done. It’s time for me to show up.’ And it did show up in significant ways. Very, very intense, rapid change. Are we going to see that this year?” Trotman said.

As regards the rainy season, Dhiram said the CIMH is forecasting a higher probability for above-normal rainfall.

From June to August, forecasters are predicting extremely high flash flood potential in The Bahamas, Belize, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, the Guianas, and Jamaica; high to extremely high potential in Cuba and the Lesser Antilles; and moderate to high potential in the ABC Islands.

“The farther away we are from today, the forecast skill weakens. We urge you to pay keen attention as these forecasts update monthly. So, you can be aware of how these probabilities change.”