Reductions in fertility have led to demographic divide in the Caribbean

Recent reductions in fertility have led to a “demographic dividend” in Latin America and the Caribbean as the latest United Nations projections suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s.

It said the population is expected to remain at that level until 2100.

The annual study, released on Monday to coincide with World Population Day (WPD), also notes that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen to less than one percent in 2020.

Fertility, the report declares, has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries: today, two-thirds of the global population live in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, the level required for zero growth in the long run, for a population with low mortality.

In 61 countries or areas, the population is expected to decrease by at least one percent over the next three decades as a result of sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

The UN notes that in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America, and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility have led to a “demographic dividend,” with a rise in the share of the working-age population (25 to 64 years), providing an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.

The report argues that to make the most of this opportunity, countries should invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education for all ages, and by promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.

It said achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education, and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.

“Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century.”

Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, warned that rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult.

The world should expect to see far more grey hairs by 2050: by then, it is expected that the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide will be more than twice the number of children under the age of five and about the same as the number under age 12.