The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says during the next three months, the peak of the wet, heat hurricane season is forecast to bring a notable increase in rainfall and wet spells, heat waves, and tropical cyclone activity in the Caribbean Islands and in Belize.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication, CariCOF said this would result in frequent disruptions of outdoor activities and rising water levels in soils, rivers, and reservoirs.
“Importantly, the potential for flash floods, long-term flooding, and cascading impacts will be high to extremely high. Heat stress will peak during this season, especially during heat waves, but will likely be less intense than in recent hot years, for example, 2016, 2020,” CariCOF said.
It said the Guianas has entered the dry season, though extreme wet spells remain possible and that “existing drought concerns in the region should subside by the end of August.”
According to CariCOF, as of July 1, severe or worse shorter-term drought has developed in western Hispaniola, and the majority of the Leeward Islands, while severe long-term drought has developed in western Cuba, southern Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica, the majority of the Leeward Islands, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent.
It said short-term drought by the end of October is not expected to be a concern, and long-term drought might possibly develop or continue for parts of Belize and St. Vincent.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season this year, making it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season began June 1 and ran until November 30, and forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predict a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a ten percent chance of a below-normal season.
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