KINGSTON, Jamaica, CMC – The Jamaican economy is expected to grow within a two to three per cent range during the period July to September this year, the Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, has said.
He said that the main downside risks to the projection are the possibility of adverse weather conditions disrupting productive activities in key industries and weakened external demand due to trade disruptions caused by the implementation of increased tariffs by the United States.
“Despite the challenges that abound, we remain optimistic as we continue to monitor and assess these developments closely,” he said.
Henry stated that the economic recovery momentum should continue, with all industries projected to record growth. This performance is expected to be supported by the recovery from the low production base during the corresponding quarter of 2024, which Hurricane Beryl adversely impacted.
The PIOJ said the economy grew by an estimated 1.4 per cent during the April to June 2025 quarter, compared with the corresponding period last year.
During the review period, the Goods Producing Industry grew by 3.8 per cent, driven by growth in three of four industries, while the Services Industry increased by 0.5 per cent.
Henry said it is anticipated that the Electricity, Water, and Waste Management Industry will record strong growth, as it was one of the most affected industries during Hurricane Beryl in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
He said that ongoing retooling and capacity expansion in the Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Service Activities industries are also expected to contribute to growth.
“Cement production is expected to record strong growth, consequent on the completion of plant expansion works, while the accommodation sector will benefit from the increased room stock and several summer events which spurred visitor arrivals to the island. Preliminary data on airport arrivals for July 2025 indicate a 16.5 per cent increase in visitors,” Henry said.
He said the strengthening of domestic demand, associated with higher levels of employment, improved business and consumer confidence, and the traditional bump in spending during periods of intense election campaigning, are expected to result in economic growth.
“Preliminary data on the Mining and Quarrying industry for July 2025 showed that alumina production increased by 18.3 per cent. The performance was largely due to the recovery, as the industry was adversely affected by Hurricane Beryl, which damaged the Port at Rocky Point, causing a temporary halt to production and export activities,” Henry said.
He noted that the increase in the labour force by 24,200 people, combined with higher consumer and business confidence levels, drove domestic demand and contributed to growth.
The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry grew by 9.8 per cent, reflecting the impact of more favourable weather conditions, which contributed to an increase in output per hectare and an 11 per cent expansion in the area of domestic crops reaped.
Henry advised that based on current output levels, the industry has fully recovered from the shock of Hurricane Beryl and is now in a new growth phase.
“The performance of the industry stemmed from a 14.1 per cent growth in the output of other crops. Increased production was recorded in all nine crop groups, led by cereals, up 27.8 per cent; potatoes up 22.9 per cent; vegetables up 18.9 per cent; condiments up 18.5 per cent; yams up 11.1 per cent, and legumes up 7.4 per cent,” Henry said.
The economic growth was further bolstered by a 2.7 per cent increase in traditional export crops, a 3.6 per cent expansion in post-harvest activities, and a 3.1 per cent increase in animal farming, which was sufficient to outweigh a 25.5 per cent decline in egg production.
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