BASSETERRE, St Kitts, CMC -The executive director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), Elizabeth Riley, said regional countries should be fully prepared for all severe weather events this year amid predictions of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
Speaking at the annual hurricane season news conference, Riley noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or higher.
Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including four to seven major hurricanes—category 3, 4, or 5—with winds of 111 mph or higher.
She said that the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. Watch video
“You would have been aware that since the start of the year, we have been advising that 2024 would be an active one,” she said, adding that “given this forecast, it is crucial that our 19 participating states in the CDEMA coordinating unit …as well as our other partners are prepared, not just prepared but well prepared.
She said that the region must be fully prepared for tropical cyclones and severe weather”.
She said that while much attention is paid to the tectonic activity, “our metrological colleagues have continued to advise us that we need to pay equal attention to severe weather events as well as the secondary hazards that they can trigger, which include flooding, storm surge, and landslides.”
She reminded the audience, including Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew, “It takes only one” weather pattern to cause a disaster in the region.
“Yes, we have the numbers, but please, we have to pay attention to our readiness at the individual level as well as the level of our governments… it is a joint effort between the government and the individual that results in readiness at the national level”.
Riley said the Caribbean is the second most vulnerable region in the world for natural hazards, facing diverse problems that include volcanic, seismic, biological, and artificial hazards.
“We must bear in mind that there is the possibility, and it is not unusual for hazard events to co-occur, and so we are looking at multi-hazard responses …and that type of complexity is one that we are seeing a lot more across the CDEMA states and it means we do have to be a lot more agile as national systems”.
She said that even now, in Belize, the country is facing a problem with wild and forest fires caused by the extensive heatwaves, and several states in the Eastern Caribbean are suffering from severe water shortages as a result of the drought.
“We have the situation of civil unrest, unfortunately, in Haiti, and our region continues to experience earthquakes. So we appreciate that we will be experiencing all of those things and potential implications for the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season,” she told reporters.
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
The CDEMA annual regional media conference provided an opportunity for the “soft” launch of the upcoming 13th Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Conference, which will be held here from December 2 to 6 this year.
It is expected to attract more than 400 disaster management practitioners and stakeholders from around the globe.
Prime Minister Drew said that the event would be held under the theme “CDM, The Road to Resilience, Checkpoint 2024, Levelling up for Dynamic Future,” which provides a comprehensive—framework for strategic planning and action in the Caribbean region by fostering dialogue, collaboration, and innovation.
‘The conference aims to enhance disaster resilience and pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future. The theme for this conference resonates deeply with the challenges and opportunities”. Watch video
He said in an era marked by rapid technological advancements, evolving geo-political landscapes, and shifting socio-economic paradigms, the imperative to “level up” has never been more in need.
“it calls upon us to adapt, innovate, and to embrace change as a catalyst for growth and development,” he said, adding that at the heart of the theme of the conference lies the recognition “that we cannot afford to remain stagnant in the face of uncertainty.
“Instead, we must harness the forces of change to propel us forward, to level up our skills, our institutions and societies to meet the demands of a dynamic future,” Prime Minister Drew told the soft launch of the CDM.
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