SANTIAGO, Chile, CMC—The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) says the region’s population reached 663 million this year, nearly four percent less than what had been forecast in 2000.
ECLAC has released its 2024 Demographic Observatory report, which examines the acceleration of demographic changes in the region’s first quarter of the 21st century and the implications of aging for the labor force and care.
It said that in 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean’s population reached 663 million people, 3.8 percent less than what had been forecast in the year 2000 when estimates pointed to a total of 689 million people.
“At that time, it was estimated that fertility and mortality rates in Latin America and the Caribbean would be higher than what was effectively recorded between 2000 and 2023, considering trends from the previous decade and in other regions. “Also, these initial projections did not anticipate the increased volume of migration flows in recent years or the significant demographic changes seen during the COVID-19 pandemic,” ECLAC said.
According to the 2024 Demographic Observatory Population Prospects and Rapid Demographic Changes in the First Quarter of the 21st Century in Latin America and the Caribbean, the region’s population is projected to peak at approximately 730 million in 2053.
The document, prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, emphasizes that the region’s population growth rate is ever-lower.
In the 1960s, annual growth rates topped 2.5 percent. However, starting in the middle of that decade, a decreasing trend began, due primarily to declining fertility. Although the 2000 revision foresaw that this downward trend would continue, the 2024 data shows that, in actuality, the decline was faster than anticipated.
“This accelerated demographic transition has prompted significant shifts in the age structure of the region’s population. In 1950, around 41 percent of the population was under 15 years of age; today, that proportion has fallen to 22.5 percent.
“At the same time, the adult population between 15 and 64 years of age went from 55.6 percent of the total population in 1950 to 67.6 percent in 2024. 2050 around 18.9 percent of the region’s population will comprise people over 65 – approximately double the proportion observed in 2024 (9.9 percent).
“This will mean an increase from 65.4 million people over 65 years of age in 2024 to an estimated 138.0 million in 2050, “ECLAC said.
The 2024 Demographic Observatory stresses that the rapid demographic shift observed in Latin America and the Caribbean presents challenges and opportunities for the region in the context of accelerated population aging, with a significant increase in the population’s median age.
The report indicates that in 1950, the median age of Latin America and the Caribbean’s population was 18; by 2024, that value had risen to 31; and by 2050, it is forecast that the median age will be approximately 40.
“The birth rate has declined more quickly than what was expected at the start of the century, and neither the rise in mortality due to COVID-19 nor the increase in migration flows was foreseen at that time,” said ECLAC’s executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.
“We at ECLAC call for promoting the population’s healthy aging and offering everyone, especially lower-income groups, access to healthcare and social protection systems that would reduce the impact of greater demand for care on families,” he added.
ECLAC said that the change in the population’s age structure and the persistent decline in fertility to below-replacement levels pose additional challenges to those already existing in Latin America and the Caribbean regarding socioeconomic inequality and access to state-provided goods and services.
It said aging impacts all areas of public policy and, in particular, entails an increase in demand for long-term care services, which poses challenges and opportunities.
Salazar-Xirinachs said it is crucial to give special consideration to women’s situation since they are generally the ones who absorb the work of caring for children and older persons within families.
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