WASHINGTON, CMC – The World Bank says Guyana is poised to lead economic growth in the Caribbean over the next two years, projecting that the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country will remain the Caribbean’s fastest-growing economy over the medium term.
In its January 2026 Global Economic Prospects Report, the Washington-based World Bank Group said the Caribbean sub-region’s economy is expected to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2026 and 6.6 per cent in 2027.
It said these regional averages are largely driven by Guyana’s sustained expansion in oil production and broader economic activity.
The report notes that, excluding Guyana, the sub-region is projected to grow by about 2.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent, supported by tourism and related services. Guyana’s economy is projected to grow by 19.6 per cent in 2026 and 21.9 per cent in 2027.
The report states that risks to the regional outlook remain tilted to the downside. Rising trade barriers, weaker external demand, and an unexpected decline in global commodity markets could further constrain growth and policy space.
“A key downside risk is an escalation of trade barriers. Further tariff increases or a trade-restrictive outcome to the USMCA review in 2026 would weigh on regional activity. Given its tight economic linkages to the United States, Mexico is particularly vulnerable, while related supply-chain disruptions could have broader negative spillovers to other economies.
“More generally, higher-than-anticipated trade barriers and persistently heightened global uncertainty could weigh on external demand by curbing growth in major trading partners, further dampening regional investment and exports,” the report stated.
The World Bank further stated that elevated debt levels and current account deficits in the region increase exposure to financial market stress and limit the ability of macroeconomic policies to respond to shocks.
It noted that the growing incidence of climate-related events poses a significant threat to key sectors and could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
On the upside, the World Bank group noted, rapid advances in artificial intelligence could support growth by spurring investment in digital infrastructure and by raising productivity through broad technology adoption.
Regarding Venezuela, the World Bank said it is too early to assess the macroeconomic implications of recent events there. In January, the United States invaded the South American country, ousting President Nicolas Maduro, who is in a New York jail awaiting trial on drugs and illegal weapons charges.
Washington has been directing much of Venezuela’s oil sales at market prices, and earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders that Venezuela was now using its oil revenues to fund government payroll and improve health care.
Rubio said he also envisages Venezuela playing an important role in Caribbean energy security.
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