CARIBBEAN-CTO remains “cautiously optimistic” about the growth of the regional tourism sector this year.

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) says it remains “cautiously optimistic” that the regional tourism sector will transition into a phase of more moderate, stable growth as global travel patterns normalize.

“While growth is expected to continue, the pace of expansion may ease as the industry navigates a shifting global environment,” said Aliyyah Shakeer, CTO’s Director of Research.

“Maintaining a steady focus on strengthening air connectivity, particularly intra-regional connectivity; enhancing product offerings; and diversifying source markets will be important to supporting sustained growth and resilience over the longer term,” Shakeer said.

Last year, Caribbean tourism continued its expansion, recording a 2.5 percent increase in international stay-over arrivals to an estimated 35 million visits, and the CTO said that, notwithstanding current travel and tourism challenges, it projects that stay-over arrivals will increase by three to four percent in 2026.

It said the increase will be supported by steady demand from North America and continued expansion in select emerging markets. Cruise tourism is also expected to grow further with projected increases between five and seven per cent.

However, ongoing global uncertainties, including economic conditions, travel costs, and external geopolitical developments, may continue to influence travel demand and performance across destinations.

“Caribbean tourism continues to demonstrate its resilience in the face of evolving global conditions, but this is no time for complacency. We must remain vigilant and proactive, working together as a united region to navigate uncertainty and sustain our momentum,” said CTO Secretary-General and chief executive officer, Dona Regis-Prosper.

“By strengthening collaboration, enhancing air connectivity, and advancing responsible tourism practices, we can ensure long-term growth that benefits our people and economies,”

Regis-Prosper said, noting that the Caribbean remains well-positioned as a highly desirable destination, supported by its diverse tourism offerings, strong brand appeal, and continued commitment to sustainable and regenerative tourism development.

According to the CTO, last year’s performance, when an estimated 900,000 more tourists visited than in 2024, reflects the region’s sustained recovery and resilience, with arrivals once again surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

It said that despite a complex global environment marked by evolving economic conditions in key source markets, heightened geopolitical tensions, and weather-related disruptions, including the passage of Hurricane Melissa, the region maintained steady tourism demand throughout much of the year.

“Caribbean tourism in 2025 demonstrated continued resilience and adaptability even as the global landscape presented several challenges,” said Shakeer, adding that strategic investments in tourism infrastructure, sustained marketing efforts, and incremental gains in airlift connectivity helped support growth and maintain the region’s competitiveness.

Performance across the year was uneven but generally positive. While the first quarter recorded a slight contraction of 0.3 percent amid early-year uncertainty, arrivals rebounded in the second and third quarters, with growth of 5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. The fourth quarter remained broadly stable with marginal growth of 0.2% as late-year momentum softened.

The CTO figures show that monthly arrivals ranged from 2.1 million to 3.5 million, peaking during the traditional high-demand periods of March, July, and December. Notably, all months in 2025 exceeded their corresponding 2019 levels, underscoring the strength of the region’s post-pandemic recovery.

Across destinations, performance remained mixed. Strong growth was recorded in several destinations, including Guyana, Dominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Curaçao, reflecting ongoing product development and market diversification efforts.

At the same time, some destinations experienced contractions influenced by external economic pressures, capacity constraints, and localized disruptions. Nevertheless, a majority of destinations have now surpassed their pre-pandemic benchmarks, highlighting the region’s overall recovery trajectory.

The United States remained the Caribbean’s largest source market, with arrivals increasing by 0.5 percent to approximately 17 million.

But the CTO noted that while demand from this market remained relatively stable, performance was uneven across the year, reflecting more cautious consumer behavior and varying conditions across destinations.

Arrivals from Canada declined 5.3 percent to an estimated 3.1 million visitors, remaining below pre-pandemic levels, as higher travel costs and increased competition from alternative destinations influenced travel patterns.

Similarly, arrivals from Europe decreased 3.3 percent to approximately 5.1 million visitors, with recovery continuing at a slower pace compared with other markets.

In contrast, South America emerged as the strongest-performing source market, with arrivals increasing by 23.7 percent to 2.4 million visits.

“This growth was supported by improved air connectivity, targeted marketing initiatives, and rising outbound demand, contributing to a gradual diversification of the region’s source markets,” the CTO said, adding that intra-regional travel also showed modest improvement, increasing 5.1 percent. However, ongoing challenges related to air connectivity and travel costs continued to constrain growth.

The Caribbean hotel sector posted mixed results in 2025. According to CoStar, average room occupancy declined slightly to 63.7 percent from 65 percent in the previous year.

However, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) rose 2.1 percent to US$350.37 while Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) increased modestly by 0.8 percent to US$223.12.

The CTO said that performance varied across destinations, with several markets recording growth across key indicators and others experiencing declines, reflecting uneven demand patterns and localized market conditions.

The cruise sector continued its strong expansion in 2025, with total cruise visits increasing by 5.2 percent to an estimated 35.5 million. This represents a significant 16.7 percent increase over pre-pandemic 2019 levels, confirming the sector’s full recovery and continued growth trajectory.

Growth in cruise activity was evident throughout the year, with particularly strong performance in the fourth quarter driven by increased capacity and strong seasonal demand. The Bahamas remained the leading cruise destination, receiving a record 10.7 million visits, followed by several high-performing destinations across the region.

“The continued expansion of cruise itineraries, fleet capacity, and port infrastructure has supported sustained growth in this segment, reinforcing its importance to the region’s overall tourism performance,” the CTO said.