BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC—The Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is forecasting economic growth of 2.5 percent among its 19 borrowing member countries in 2025. This follows growth of 1.7 percent in 2024, excluding Guyana, whose economy surged by 43.5 percent last year.
Presenting the Regional Economic Performance and Prospects at its annual news conference here on Wednesday, the CDB’s Director of Economics, Ian Durant, said that the 2025 projection also does not include the forecast for Guyana.
He said growth is forecast to vary among the 16 countries, with Guyana’s expansion expected to slow to 11.9 percent, following its rapid growth in oil production in 2024.
“Nevertheless, the country’s performance will remain a key contributor to the region’s economic growth,” Durant said, adding that including all 19 borrowing member countries, the region is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent.
Among other commodity exporters, growth is expected to gain momentum as they recover while service-exporting economies are projected to expand by 2.2 per cent. Watch video
“Tourism is likely to remain a key driver of economic activity. Construction, supported by public and private investments, is also anticipated to contribute positively to near-term economic performance,” Durant said.
On the fiscal front, the CDB said most governments are expected to maintain primary surpluses, further strengthening debt positions in 2025. Durant said that while the Caribbean region is on track for continued growth in 2025, several risks could alter this trajectory.
He mentioned geopolitical tensions internationally, adding that this, along with a resurgence of protectionist policies, could elevate uncertainty in global markets, disrupt supply chains, and exert upward pressure on commodity prices.
“Additionally, policy shifts in the United States, including evolving foreign policy priorities, add to the uncertainty of the outlook. Potential slowdowns in major trading partners, particularly the United States, could dampen demand for regional exports.”
Domestically, the ability to execute critical infrastructure projects on time will be crucial, Durant told the media, adding that delays could hold back growth in industries like construction, energy, and transportation.
Durant said that the region’s ever-present vulnerability to natural hazards remains a significant concern, noting that as climate change intensifies, extreme weather events increase. The risk of disruptions to economic activity grows.
“These natural hazards could not only disrupt economic activity but in some cases may reverse developmental gains and endanger fiscal and debt sustainability,” he said in the outlook that came nine months after the record-breaking Hurricane Beryl devastated parts of Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine while impacting other Caribbean countries.
The CDB director of Economics said that with elections anticipated in many countries in 2025 and 2026, fiscal pressures and policy shifts that could slow reform momentum are likely.
The 2025 outlook comes even as the region has emerged mainly from some of the most severe economic shocks in recent history, including COVID-19, supply chain disruptions exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, and the high inflation that followed.
“These global headwinds tested our resilience, but our borrowing member countries have weathered the storm and continued to advance steadily,” Durant said.
He said that the 1.7 percent expansion of the regional economy, excluding Guyana, shows that 15 CBD borrowing member countries have surpassed pre-pandemic absolute output levels.
“This performance represents a slowdown from growth of 2.5 percent recorded in 2023, reflecting the diminishing momentum from the post-pandemic recovery,” Durant said.
Growth rates, however, varied, with Guyana and Haiti as outliers. While Guyana’s 43.5 percent growth was fuelled by increased oil production and continued expansion in its non-energy sectors, Haiti remains “in crisis.”
“The country continued to grapple with political instability, escalating gang violence, and high inflation, contributing to its sixth consecutive economic contraction.”
When Guyana’s performance is included, regional growth rises to 8.8 percent in 2024, up from 6.6 percent in 2023, highlighting the country’s significant influence on regional economic development.
“For most other countries, growth was moderate,” Durant said and pointed out that commodity-exporting economies like Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago continued their modest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the same time, service-exporting economies, many of which have exceeded their pre-pandemic output levels, grew at a slower pace of 1.6 percent in 2024, down from 2.8 percent in 2023, as economies settled into more normal patterns of activity.
“The tourism industry remained the key driver of growth. Stayover arrivals reached 6.8 million in the first three quarters of the year, with more than half of borrowing member countries surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and some even setting new records.”
Regarding development imperatives, Durant said that for many CDB borrowing member countries, sustaining higher growth remains a challenge, burdened by persistent structural challenges.
“Yet higher growth is necessary to reduce poverty, bridge inequalities, and elevate the standard of living for all citizens and residents of this region. Higher growth is essential —not merely to endure, but to progress,” he told the media.
“The path forward demands bold action to address these challenges, build resilience, and seize inclusive and sustainable growth opportunities. To this end, the development imperatives for 2025 and the medium-term are clear.”
Echoing CDB President Daniel Best, who spoke earlier in the news conference, Durant said the region must build resilience to climate change and natural hazards.
“Hurricane Beryl’s devastation was a stark reminder of our region’s fragility. We must redouble efforts to climate-proof infrastructure, improve disaster preparedness, and integrate climate considerations into every facet of development planning,” Durant said, warning that the region must address its over-dependence on tourism for foreign exchange earnings.
“Achieving the necessary diversification requires us to build dynamic, internationally competitive economies,” he said, adding that the region needs to modernize its road and port infrastructure “in a coordinated way that allows us to trade among ourselves, build out potential regional supply chains and connect with international markets.
“However, it is not enough to build out infrastructure. We must also modernize and digitalize the regulatory and support systems to reduce the cost of navigating these business processes.”
Durant said that 24-hour operations at ports, electronic port community systems, coordinated sanitary and phytosanitary standards, cold storage facilities, and access to appropriate types and levels of finance are just some of the needs in building out a healthy ecosystem for competitiveness and diversification.
“Finally, fiscal discipline, risk management, and strong institutions remain cornerstones of sustainable growth. Maintaining prudent public fiscal management while prioritizing investments in productive infrastructure and the social well-being of our people is critical. Balancing these needs will require visionary leadership and unwavering commitment,” he said.
The CDB director of Economics told reporters that the region’s road ahead is challenging, “but it is also rich with promise.
“The Caribbean Development Bank is a steadfast partner to the region in this journey. We are committed to supporting our borrowing member countries as they pursue these imperatives, providing financial resources, technical expertise, and strategic guidance.”
He said that the CDB will publish a Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook in April 2025 as part of this commitment. It will provide deeper insights into the trends, challenges, and opportunities discussed at the media briefing.
and then  is forecasting economic growth of 2.5 percent among its 19 borrowing member){kind=link}