BARBADOS-Central Bank predicts economic growth of nearly six percent this year.

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) Friday said the performance of the island’s economy during the first six months of this year underscores Barbados’ resilience in the face of unfavorable global developments.

“Economic activity expanded by 3.9 percent, representing the ninth consecutive quarter of economic expansion. This growth resulted in fiscal surpluses, improved employment, reduced debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, a narrowing gap between the value of exports and imports, and record foreign reserve levels. The increased economic activity also fed into the financial services sector, improving credit quality and boosting assets and profits,” the CBB added.

In a review of the Barbados economy from January to June 2023, the CBB said that real GDP would grow by about four to five percent in 2023, contingent on a continued recovery in tourism activity and increased private sector investments.

CBB Governor, Dr. Kevin Greenidge, said concerning tourism, forward bookings for the remainder of the year are encouraging and that the return of an entire Crop Over festival itinerary and the anticipated opening of the Wyndham Sam Lord’s Hotel are expected to boost demand for the destination in the coming months.

“The sharing economy is also expected to contribute to the stability of tourist arrivals by continuing to attract a visitor segment less interested in the traditional hotel experience. Local tourism stakeholders are attempting to address the airlift challenge into Barbados, a factor, which, along with airline ticket prices well above pre-pandemic levels, remains one of the key barriers to the full recovery in visitor numbers.”

The CBB said that the other sectors of the economy should continue to benefit from the strong tourism performance and construction activity. It said a projected expansion in construction in the second half of 2023 is also expected to aid output growth in the non-traded sectors and assist with employment growth.

According to the CBB, inflation should improve in the medium term due to declines in international commodity and energy prices over the first half of this year. It said the fall in these key commodity prices has already stabilized the imported component of inflation.

“As a result, domestic inflation is expected to decrease to five percent or below by year’s end, should current international prices be maintained or decline over the second half of 2023,” Greenlight said.

However, the June announcement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC +) grouping of its intention to further cut crude oil production through 2024 and the potential of the Russian- Ukraine war to continue to disrupt grain supplies present significant downside risks.

The CBB said other geo-political risks remain, noting that cyber-attacks can adversely impact critical national infrastructure and essential services in trading partner countries.

The Central Bank said gross reserves remain historic but are expected to decline modestly over the second half of 2023.

“This projected decline should be driven by the continued expansion of the domestic economy, which is expected to increase the demand for foreign exchange. Reserves are still expected to be well above the internationally accepted threshold for reserve cover by year-end 2023,” the CBB said in its 33-page report.

It warned, however, that abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic promise more frequent and intense storm activity. The forecasts of rising global temperatures indicate the likelihood of more muscular storm activity, which can negatively impact food crop production and damage infrastructure.

“It is therefore imperative that efforts towards ensuring food security are continued, and disaster mitigation and management systems are fortified. The focus on attracting climate-related financing is expected to yield results over the medium term and will assist in improved climate resilience.”

Greenidge said the government had indicated its continued commitment to meeting all targets set under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported program.

He said by the end of the financial year 2023/24, the fiscal deficit is projected to reach 1.8 percent of GDP, while the primary balance is forecast to record a surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP. “The achievement of the primary balance target depends on continued economic activity bolstering 26 revenue collections throughout the rest of the fiscal year with expenditure remaining in line with targets.”

The Central Bank Governor said the island’s public sector debt remains sustainable despite interest rate hikes in industrialized countries.

“Foreign borrowing will need to continue in the short to medium-term as government implements plans to revive the local bond market by diversifying the range of available instruments,” he said, adding, “Even inclusive of this projected borrowing, the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to halve to 60 percent by the financial year 2035/36”.

The CBB said credit from debt-to-income (DTI) should provide continued support to businesses and individuals for the remainder of the year. It said household loans may increase as the year progresses, based on the higher demand for mortgages and the need for greater renewable energy capacity.

“Credit quality should also continue to improve as economic activity expands and facilitates the settlement of debts. Capital buffers for most depository institutions remain at comfortable levels, serving as a safeguard against potential domestic and global shocks. At the same time, the financial system faces the challenge of deploying the excess liquidity in the financial system in a profitable and prudential way.”

The CBB said the transition towards a fossil-free economy by 2035 remains critical in the medium to long term.

It said recognizing the importance of imports to the sustainability of the external position, investments in renewable energy will help to reshape the composition of imported goods, eventually resulting in a shift away from fossil fuels.

“Over time, the net savings stemming from this transition is expected to become more prominent, showcasing the substantial economic advantages of this pivotal shift.

“To secure a sustainable and prosperous future, we must continue to invest in renewable energy, agriculture, and technology to foster resilience and create new growth opportunities.

“Continued collaboration between the public and private sectors is critical to achieving fiscal and debt sustainability and promoting climate-resilient economic development,” the CBB said.