BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is predicting a Caribbean heat season with heatwaves gradually ramping up, and night and daytime temperatures possibly matching the 2024 records in the northwest of the region.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication, released here, CariCOF said that for the period May to July, ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific are forecast to transition to a significant El Niño by July. ENSO is a periodic fluctuation occurring every two to seven years in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“This, combined with unusually warm waters near to and north of the Caribbean, but seasonably warm waters in around the southern reaches imply a Caribbean Heat Season with heatwaves gradually ramping up, and night- and daytime temperatures possibly matching 2024 records in the northwest of the region; high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells and drought continuation in many areas in the eastern and southern Caribbean, thus increasing wildfire potential through May or longer;”.
CariCOF said that while rainfall frequency could increase more slowly in the west season than in most years, shower intensity should rise towards June, resulting in a high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and associated impacts.
“Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent,” CariCOF added.
CariCOF said that as of April, a short-term drought has developed in Antigua, the northwest and northern Bahamas, French Guiana, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and Suriname.
It said long-term drought is imminent in Grenada and St. Lucia, south-west Belize, Martinique, and might develop or continue in Barbados, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.
and then  is predicting a Caribbean heat season with heatwaves gradually ramping up){kind=link}