BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Tuesday said that the continued unusual warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean will result in the occurrence of severe weather activity as early as April.
CariCOF, in its latest edition of Caribbean Climate Outlooks covering the three months, February to April, said that severe weather will occur in southern Belize, the Guianas, the Greater Antilles, and mountainous areas of the Lesser Antilles, implying high or even extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and associated impacts after March.
CariCOF said that this part of the Caribbean Dry Season includes its annual peak in March, as well as the transition from the cool to the heat season.
The continued, unusual warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean will also result in short dry spells increasing in frequency, particularly in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao) and Lesser Antilles, as well as comfortable temperatures in February, making way to episodes of heat discomfort by March in inland portions of Belize, the Guianas, and Trinidad.
It said elsewhere that rainfall totals are unlikely to mitigate long-term drought impacts in the ABC Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Windward Islands, caused by large rainfall deficits during the 2025 Wet Season.
Rainfall totals from February to April are likely to be the usual or higher in the ABC Islands, the Bahamas, Barbados, Grand Cayman, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Windward Islands.
CariCOF notes that short-term drought is evolving in northern Haiti, St. Kitts, and St. Lucia, and may develop or persist in the northwestern Bahamas, the northern Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barts.
Long-term drought is imminent in the ABC Islands, Grenada, and St. Lucia, and is evolving in Dominica, Martinique, and St. Kitts.
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