BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The number of Canadian visitors to the Caribbean fell by nine percent to 1.67 million. In comparison, arrivals from Europe dropped by an estimated five percent to 2.53 million during the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year.
Paul Garnes, a database administrator at the Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), stated that in the case of Canada, this was due to softer demand tied to weaker consumer confidence, higher travel costs, and currency fluctuations.
Garnes told the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference, taking place here through Friday, that while Europe remains an essential market for Caribbean tourism, demand is under pressure due to economic headwinds and/or stronger competition from other destinations.
He said intra-Caribbean travel registered 560,000 arrivals, representing 1.2 percent growth, adding, “This continues to support regional resilience.”
South America was another “bright spot,” with arrivals jumping more than 25 percent, rising from 790,000 to just under one million.
“And then in other markets, including Asia, Africa, and others, we saw solid double-digit growth, up 12 per cent to nearly 3.8 million arrivals,” Garnes said, adding that this shows that the Caribbean is diversifying beyond traditional source markets.
Garnes said a closer look at Canada showed that Canadian outbound travel suffered a decline in the first half of 2025, particularly as U.S. tariffs, trade tensions, and broader uncertainty prompted many Canadians to opt for domestic trips and alternative destinations.
For the Caribbean, approximately 1.7 million Canadian tourists visited between January and June, representing a decrease of just over 9 percent from the same period last year.
“And it pulled our recovery rate back from nearly 86 per cent of 2019 levels in 2024 to 78 per cent this year. “
From January to March, arrivals dropped sharply, down 12 percent in January, 15 percent in February, and 10 percent in March.
“These losses were even deeper when compared to 2019, with winter months still 27 per cent to 31 per cent below pre-pandemic levels,” Garnes said, noting that the downward trend continued in April and May, though the contractions were smaller.
In June, there was a rebound as arrivals grew by nearly seven per cent year-over-year, even as the month was 11 per cent lower than the 2019 volume.
“So when we look at Canadian arrivals by destination, the results were very uneven,” Garnes said, adding that of the 19 CTO reporting destinations, only eight recorded growth in the first half of the year.
Increases range from a small 2% to a strong 36%. Bermuda, Curacao, and Aruba were the top-performing destinations for Canadians. Looking further back to 2019, only six destinations have fully recovered their pre-crisis volumes. For the rest, Canadian arrivals are still below 2019 levels.”
Garnes said the European economy showed moderate growth in the first half of 2025, supported by services and manufacturing.
“Inflation eased, employment held steady, and discretionary spending improved, factors that helped sustain outbound travel,” he said, noting that long-haul travel from Europe is rebounding. However, destination performance still depends heavily on how each market is recovering and where travelers choose to go.
By the end of June, approximately 2.5 million Europeans had visited the Caribbean, a decrease of almost five percent from the previous year and 17 percent below pre-crisis levels.
“Month by month, arrivals were weak,” Garnes said, adding that the first quarter saw declines averaging around 7.5 per cent.
“April was the lone bright spot, with a very slight uptick, but May and June slipped again. Overall, quarter two declined by a smaller margin, about 2 percent. Compared to 2019, recovery rates vary widely, from just under 70 per cent in January to nearly 93 per cent in May.”
Garnes said most Caribbean destinations saw declines in arrivals from Europe.
“Only seven of the 19 reporting destinations grew in the first half, led by Guyana, Anguilla, and Antigua and Barbuda. Growth ranged from just under two per cent to about 36 per cent,” Garnes said.
“So, looking at recovery since 2019, just six destinations have fully surpassed three pandemic levels, with gains from two to 79 per cent.”
Overall, tourist arrivals to the Caribbean increased by 1.9% during the first half of 2025, despite a softening of demand from North America.
Garnes said that overall, the region still recorded arrivals 6.1 per cent above 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
“Considering tourist arrivals then, in the first half of the year 2025, the Caribbean tourism industry showed strong resilience, continuing to grow despite external challenges,” Garnes said.
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