KINGSTON, Jamaica, CMC—Despite recent economic challenges, Jamaica is not in a recession, says the Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry.
Speaking at a PIOJ Quarterly press briefing on Thursday, Henry addressed concerns about the island’s economic performance, citing a comprehensive analysis of key indicators.
“While we acknowledge the downturn in economic output, our assessment based on the most recent data and information available is that the Jamaican economy is not in a recession,” he emphasized.
The determination follows a scrutiny period prompted by data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showing a decline in seasonally adjusted real value added at constant prices for the April to June and July to September 2024 quarters.
Henry clarified that while this data initially suggested the economy met one technical criterion for a recession, a more holistic view provides a different picture.
“The use of gross domestic product (GDP) alone to determine a recession has its shortfalls,” he explained.
“It is often better to consider a wider set of measures of economic activity to determine whether a country is experiencing a recession. Specifically, economic indicators, such as income, employment, and fiscal health, should be considered to reflect a more comprehensive view,” he added.
One of the most compelling factors supporting the PIOJ’s assessment is the strength of Jamaica’s labor market.
“The unemployment rate for October 2024 is 3.5 percent, and employers have lamented challenges and shortages in filling some vacant positions.”
“This suggests that despite the temporary contraction in output, the labor market continues to remain robust and may be considered a lead indicator of a return to growth in the short term,” he added.
Henry acknowledged the impact of recent hydrological events, including Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Raphael, which significantly affected key sectors such as tourism, electricity and water supply, agriculture, forestry, and fishing.
Despite these challenges, Henry expressed optimism about the near future.
“Based on the most recent data and information available, the PIOJ is projecting that the economy will return to positive output performance, that is, growth, in the January to March 2025 quarter,” he said.
“We will continue to monitor and track economic developments, and we’ll update our assessment as new data becomes available,” Dr. Henry said.
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