WASHINGTON, CMC -Guyana is expected to record the highest growth among Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries this year. In contrast, Haiti will record under one percent growth in 2023, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.
According to the IMF, Guyana, now recognized as an oil-producing country following the discovery of the product a few years ago, will record economic growth of 37.2 percent this year, increasing to 45.3 percent next year.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the CARICOM country with the second highest predicted economic growth of six percent this year, will register a five percent growth in 2024.
With a growth of 5.5 percent this year, Antigua and Barbuda will see that figure decline slightly to 5.4 percent next year. At the same time, Dominica and Barbados are projected to record economic growth of 4.9 percent this year, dropping to 4.7 and 3.9 percent, respectively, in 2024.
According to IMF projections, the twin island Federation of St. Kitts-Nevis will record economic growth of 4.5 percent this year, dropping to 3.8 percent the following year. In contrast, Bahama’s economic growth this year is projected at 4.3 percent, declining significantly to 1.8 percent next year.
Belize, Grenada, St. Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago will all register a growth of three or just over three percent this year, even as the development will decline to two percent next year for Belize, increase to 4.1 percent for Grenada, a decline to 2.2 percent for St. Lucia and 2.3 percent for Trinidad and Tobago.
The Dutch-speaking CARICOM country of Suriname will record economic growth of 2.3 percent this year, increasing to three percent the following year. In contrast, in the case of Haiti, where political and social unrest has engulfed that country, the economic growth this year will be 0.3 percent, increasing to 1.2 percent next year.
In its report, the Washington-based financial institution said that the global economy’s gradual recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains on track.
It said China’s reopened economy is rebounding strongly and that supply chain disruptions are unwinding while dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding. “Simultaneously, the massive and synchronized tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back towards targets,” the IMF said, adding that its latest World Economic Outlook is that growth will bottom out at 2.8 percent this year before rising modestly to three percent next year, 0.1 percentage points below the r January projections.
“Global inflation will fall, though more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 percent last year to seven percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2024,” the IMF said, adding that the economic slowdown is most pronounced in advanced economies and that inflation is falling more slowly than anticipated.
The Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department says while regulatory changes put in place after the Global Financial Crisis have made the financial system more resilient, recent events may be a harbinger of more systemic stress to come.
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