BRUSSELS, CMC – The Belgium-based International Crisis Group (ICG) says instead of rushing toward elections, the transitional government in Haiti should focus on the “nuts and bolts of responsible governance” in the French-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country.
A report titled “Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti,” released here on Wednesday, examines how partisan infighting and corruption allegations within transitional authorities have prolonged political dysfunction in Haiti, making it unlikely a safe election can be held this year.
Meanwhile, gang control is steadily expanding, it warned.
“Early hopes that the transitional government would quickly tackle the country’s rampant insecurity have faded. Enmeshed in power struggles, they have failed to galvanise the fight against gangs. At the same time, donors have provided limited funding to the Kenya-led security mission,” said Diego Da Rin, the ICG’s Haiti analyst.
“Haiti urgently needs a legitimate government. However, holding a safe vote on a new constitution and a new government by the end of 2025 is unrealistic. Rather than setting a strict deadline for the polls, the transitional administration should establish clear benchmarks that need to be reached before elections are held,” Da Rin added.
The ICG’s Latin America and the Caribbean Programme Director, Renata Segura, said with safe elections looking improbable in the near term, Haiti’s transitional authorities should get past their internal disputes to plot a realistic course to polls and constitutional reform.
“At the same time, they should work alongside foreign partners and the UN Security Council to explore how security assistance from abroad can be made more sustainable and effective,” Segura added.
The ICG said that drawing on the agreement that created the administration, Haiti should establish an assembly where political groups represented in the Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) can resolve their grievances without threatening to upend the state.
“The authorities should also act quickly to appoint a new National Security Council and to provide the secretary of state for public security with the support required to map a strategy for reducing violence anchored in concrete, achievable steps.
“The government should also show it is serious about fighting corruption by holding its members accountable. Transitional authorities should work alongside foreign partners to explore how security assistance from abroad can be made more sustainable and effective.”
The ICG said that it is all the more crucial that they do so at a time when funding from the United States, Haiti’s main donor, has been partially frozen by the Trump administration, putting Washington’s commitment to underwrite future security operations in serious doubt.
It said donations for the multinational mission have fallen far short of expectations, and not all the promised 2,500 officers and materiel have arrived.
The ICG said that the United Nations could backstop the mission’s financial and logistical needs along the lines of its support for African Union forces in Somalia, “but it is unclear whether this approach would address all the current gaps in its operations.”
It noted that a violent siege of Haiti’s capital in early 2024 triggered the creation of a transitional government and the eventual arrival of a United Nations Security Council Kenyan-led mission to help counter the gang threat.
However, it said that infighting has paralysed the government, empowered the gangs, and made it unlikely that planned elections will be held safely.
“Haiti urgently needs a legitimate government able to lead the campaign to curb gang violence and respond to the country’s dire humanitarian emergency. But holding polls prematurely could backfire, allowing gangs to play a deciding role in the vote and entrenching their power.
“What should be done? Haiti’s transitional authorities should strive to overcome internal wrangling and chart a realistic path to safe elections and constitutional reform. With future US funding in doubt, the UN Security Council must find a way to support either the existing international security force or a peacekeeping mission to weaken the gangs,” the ICG added.
It said that efforts by Haitian politicians and their foreign partners to quell surging gang violence have yet to bear fruit.
The ICG said that the UN Security Council, for its part, must decide how best to respond to Haiti’s request for support in fighting the gangs.
It said February last year saw a grim milestone in the gangs’ growth but also the beginning of what seemed to be a concerted effort to stabilise Haiti.
“Instead of fighting one another, gangs banded together to mount a multi-pronged assault. Besieging Port-auPrince, they cemented control of more than 80 percent of the city, emptied jails, ransacked police stations, and forced the airport to close.”
It said that to make matters worse plans to push through constitutional reform, to be voted on at a referendum in the first half of 2025, and to hold elections before the year’s end have made scant progress.
“Members of provisional electoral bodies were appointed only in December, and Haiti lacks an up-to-date voter register. Moreover, polls held in current conditions would be unsafe for candidates and voters alike.
“Despite isolated achievements by police and the foreign mission in their campaign against the gangs, these groups control much of the capital and essential roads to the rest of the country while fighting is expanding into other regions,” said the report.
It noted that in the past five months, gangs have carried out at least four massacres, claiming the lives of an estimated 400 people.
“Staggering the voting schedule or placing polling stations outside gang-controlled territory could make balloting possible in some areas. However, the result would likely be a very low turnout, possibly under 20 percent, as witnessed in Haiti’s last polls in 2016. Gangs could also sow fear in places under their sway to ensure that their allies win positions of power,” the report added.
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