BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) the Pacific has transitioned out of La Niña, and ocean temperatures around the Caribbean are expected to be close to average.
La Niña is characterized by frigid ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by hot ocean temperatures.
“This makes it difficult to forecast unusual climate conditions as the Caribbean transitions into the wet season,” CariCOF said in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter released Tuesday.
It said, nevertheless, long-term drought concerns are rising in parts of Cuba. At the same time, the effects of frequent dry spells across the Islands and Belize will likely continue, with a peak in wildfire potential and Saharan dust intrusions.
“There is a likelihood of heatwaves in Belize, Cuba, Jamaica, and Trinidad from April and May elsewhere in the Islands. By contrast, the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards will increase to moderate or high into May,” CariCOf added.
It said the current severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in southeast Cuba, eastern Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica, and severe (or worse) long-term drought has developed in Haiti and St. Vincent.
“Long-term drought might develop or continue in Barbados, northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, southern Dominican Republic, Grenada, and Tobago. Areas ending up in long-term drought by the end of May will likely experience lower than usual water levels in large reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater.”
CariCOF said that a short-term drought situation by the end of June 2023 might develop in the Northern Bahamas, Barbados, northern Belize, Grand Cayman, Eastern and Western Cuba, Dominican Republic, Grenada, eastern Jamaica, western Puerto Rico, St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI).
and then  the Pacific has transitioned out of La Niña, and ocean temperatures around){kind=link}