WASHINGTON, CMC—The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) welcomed Guyana’s “remarkable economic progress” toward attaining high-income status, supported by rapidly expanding oil production and robust non-oil growth.
They said that Guyana’s economic outlook remains highly favorable, with balanced risks, strong fundamentals, and a strong external position supported by substantial oil revenue accumulation in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF).
The directors commended the Guyanese authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent policies to entrench macroeconomic and fiscal stability.
According to the Washington-based financial institution, Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing strongly and broadening in scale.
It said rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the world’s highest real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, which has averaged 47 percent yearly since 2022.
“Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024, while real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent, reflecting a solid broad-based performance across sectors. Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, from two percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices affected by international food prices and earlier floods,” the IMF added.
It said the overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting a large increase in capital expenditures.
The IMF said that driven by higher oil exports, Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24.5 percent of GDP.
It said that by the end of 2024, gross international reserves surpassed one billion US dollars, while the NRF accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion.
The IMF said that the economic outlook remains highly favorable and that the economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth.
It said positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are expected to boost real non-oil GDP growth to an average of 6.75 percent over the medium term, about three percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average.
“While inflation is projected to rise to around 4 percent in 2025, the overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025. Over the medium term, the continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.”
The IMF said that risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, additional oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including strengthening energy resilience, would further bolster Guyana’s long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity would support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth.
“Downside risks stem from overheating pressures which, if not contained, would lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy. Commodity price volatility in a highly uncertain global environment, including from trade policy and climate shocks, could also adversely affect inflation and alter the macroeconomic outlook.”
The IMF directors agreed that the current fiscal stance is appropriate given development needs and welcomed the government’s commitment to eliminate the overall budgetary deficit over the medium term and further narrow the non-oil primary deficit to levels consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and preserving fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability.
They highlighted the need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, along with regular assessments of expenditure related to reaching development objectives.
The directors, who concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana, noted the authorities’ continued efforts to strengthen public financial management and the low risk of debt distress, given the low public debt.
The directors considered the monetary policy stance appropriately tight to help contain inflation while noting the need for further tightening if inflation risks escalated.
and then  welcomed Guyana's "remarkable economic progress" toward attaining){kind=link}