SANTIAGO, Chile, CMC – The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has updated its growth projections for the region, estimating that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 2.4 per cent this year and slightly reduced to 2.3 per cent next year.
The new estimate for 2025 represents an upward revision from the 2.2 per cent forecast in the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, published on August 5.
This is the second upward revision since April, when the outlook for regional growth was 2 per cent, and ECLAC said that, with this update, the expectation for regional development is identical to the figure presented in December 2024 of 2.4 per cent.
ECLAC said that the adjustment to the projections reflects a less adverse international environment than what was foreseen in April. Still, it does not change the underlying diagnosis: external drivers of growth have decelerated, and the region continues to grow slowly.
It said to break out of this situation, a more accelerated, productive transformation is needed to fuel economic growth and productivity, diversify economies, and create more and better jobs.
ECLAC said the revisions to the 2025 projections reflect changes in the external conditions faced by the region.
These include modifications in the scenarios for international trade growth due to the effects of the tariff announcements made by the United States since April of this year, as well as adjustments in the growth prospects of the region’s main trading partners – the pace of which, while decelerating versus 2024, has improved in comparison with the estimates from the start of the year.
In addition to these factors, global inflation expectations have declined more slowly than expected, affecting the pace of interest rate reductions by the leading central banks and the dollar’s trajectory in international markets.
Although the international context has been the main conditioning factor this year, ECLAC emphasizes that domestic determinants – such as the reduced space available for fiscal and monetary policies, productive specialization, and the destination of exports – also account for differences in the performance of the region’s economies.
The current projections indicate heterogeneous behavior across subregions.
In 2025, South America is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent, above the 2.7 per cent forecast in August. This rise reflects increased trade between the subregion’s countries and China, as well as a rebound in the prices of precious metals and other products from extractive sectors.
The English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean is forecast to grow by 4.7 per cent, or 1.9 per cent if Guyana is excluded, versus 4.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent in August, respectively, driven by a more favorable-than-expected result in the tourism sector.
For 2026, ECLAC has kept its regional projection unchanged at 2.3 per cent.
It says that if this estimate is borne out, it would be the fourth straight year of around 2.3 per cent regional growth, leading to average regional GDP growth of 1.6 per cent for the 2017-2026 period. By subregion, 2026 growth rates are forecast to be 1.7 per cent for the Caribbean region, but 1.7 per cent if Guyana is excluded.
ECLAC warns that the international outlook continues to be dominated by downward risks, including the possibility of abrupt corrections in global financial markets, pressures on fiscal sustainability in advanced economies, and possible additional trade disruptions – tensions that could affect the credibility of monetary policies in the world’s leading central banks and interest rate levels.
Given this scenario, ECLAC urges the region’s countries to preserve macroeconomic stability, strengthen their fiscal and monetary institutions, and promote productive development policies to increase productivity, diversify exports, boost intraregional trade, and foster sustainable investment.
In December, ECLAC said it will publish its flagship report ”Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025,” in which it will offer a detailed analysis of the year’s results along with new perspectives for 2026.
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