ST. JOHN’S, Antigua, CMC – It’s a general election that has been long in coming, even though the constitutional deadline is March 2023.
But when the estimated 60,916 people who are eligible to cast ballots in Wednesday’s general election begin the process of exercising their franchise at 6.00 am (local time) for the next 12 hours, it would have officially put to an end a campaign that started many, many months ago electing a new government in Antigua and Barbuda.
Prime Minister Gaston Browne, seeking a third consecutive term in office, had been teasing the electorate about calling the election ahead of the constitutional deadline, given that the last poll here was held on March 21, 2018.
Browne led his Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party (SBLP) to a convincing 15-2 victory at the polls, with the main opposition United Progressive Party (UPP) and the Barbuda People’s Movement (BPM) winning the other two seats.
But this time, the odds are against a repeat of that margin of victory.
The Barbados-based political scientist and pollster Peter Wickham, who did a public opinion poll here in November, said while it showed that the ABLP was ahead then, he remains comfortable “the election is theirs (ABLP) to lose.
“Certainly, they have a majority of seats and a significant advantage. The (main) opposition has a single heart, and the Opposition Leader is not a Member of Parliament, and those are the factors that are really in play.
“So I sense that the opposition is stronger now than they were before, and I think they will gain a seat or two or some seats, but I am not convinced they will gain enough to win the election,” Wickham told the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC), adding he has since been on the ground here and “I suspect it will be an Antigua Labour Party victory again.”
But another pollster, Lindell Winter, does not share that view and believes a resurgent UPP will spring a surprise.
“I would not be surprised if the Labour Party is unseated. At the same time, I think it boils down to the constituency to constituency,” he told a radio audience.
He named several constituencies “as being critical” to a UPP victory.
The UPP, headed by the former finance minister Harold Lovell, whom Browne had defeated in the past two elections, is quietly confident of pulling off a victory.
“Elections are such that it is the will of the people, we served for ten years, and then the people decided that they wanted a change. This government has served for nine and a half (years, and) we will see what happens on Wednesday,” Lovell said as he addressed young people during an election forum at the Antigua State College earlier this week.
One political observer summed up the choices facing the electorate this way “to be frank, the whole election is boring…It can go either way. People are fed up with Wurl Boss (Prime Minister Browne), his arrogance and alleged blatant thievery…and the utter incompetence and irrelevance of the UPP. What a choice!”
The Human Resource Professionals of Antigua and Barbuda (HRPAB) has reminded employers of the need to ensure that their workers are provided with adequate time, as provided for by law, to cast their ballots on Wednesday.
“Employers must recognize that voting can be a time-consuming process with lengthy waits at polling stations in large constituencies, and at peak voting times, for example, at the opening of the polls,” the HRPAB said in a statement, adding that “employees on the other hand, should also realize that the four hours is a guide to be used only in the event of long lines.”
It said it encourages all employees to exercise their civic duty to vote in the upcoming elections and to work with their employer and colleagues to ensure that all eligible employees can exercise their right to vote should they choose.
There are 53 candidates representing three political parties and three independents in the race for control of the 17-seat Parliament. But political observers say the race is a fight between the ABLP and the UPP, with the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) making yet another foray into elective politics not expected to shake the proverbial tree.
But one of the independent candidates, Asot Michael, a former government minister and four-time parliamentary representative for the St. Peter constituency, is hoping for a result that would allow him to emerge as king player and even become the island’s next prime minister.
Michael tried unsuccessfully in the courts to have the ABLP candidate for the constituency presented from being nominated, and on Monday, Justice Dia Forrester, in a ruling delivered by Zoom from Grenada, gave him yet another setback as he threatened contempt of court action against twp electoral officials including the Supervisor of Elections, Dame Lorna Simon.
“I am very relieved because contempt meant that both the Returning Officer and I could have been sent to prison or fined for breaching the court’s ruling regarding the selection of Mr. Michael. So I am thrilled at the outcome and that things can proceed according to our plans on Wednesday when the polls open at six am (local time),” Dame Lorna said after the ruling.
But Michael is casting his net even more comprehensively, telling reporters that if he is re-elected and there is a tie among the other political parties for control of the Parliament, then he is open to negotiations in that hypothetical scenario.
“Don’t you think Asot Michael is more competent than Harold Lovell or Gaston Browne…I just told you that I have worked for four Prime Ministers. They [the political parties] would have to come to me… I am sure the United Progressive Party doesn’t want to go back into opposition, and I am sure that the Labour Party doesn’t want to go into [the opposition],” he said.
But Wickham has poured cold water on Michel’s dream, saying he does not believe any political parties would be willing to work with him.
“My polling suggests that he will not win. Indeed, if he does best, I will congratulate him because, since the (late Sir James) Mitchell in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, he would become the first truly independent able to win without an accommodation.
“If that does happen, he will certainly make his way into the history books, but having said that, he still has a challenge because he needs to associate with either of the two parties, and neither of them has come out and said they will associate themselves with him,” Wickham added.
The two main political parties have released their manifestoes outlining policies for future socio-economic development and security of Antigua and Barbuda over the next five years.
They have spoken of job creation, developing inter-regional transportation, leveraging technology for development, and implementing policies for youth development. In addition, both parties have outlined plans further to develop the medical, education, and tourism sectors.
“My vision for our nation is that it should be an economic powerhouse, which drives robust growth and sustainable development to achieve developed country living standards,” Prime Minister Browne said.
“Every Antiguan and Barbudan has a right to a better, more productive, healthy, and happy life,” Browne said, adding that the ABLP has “the experience, knowledge, and vision to continue our people’s advancement to new heights.”
But Lovell has countered by saying that his party’s manifesto reflects the change that the people want to see and are pulled together based on consultations with the people over the past two years.
Lovell said, for example, the fiscal policy must have an underlying philosophy behind it and that the proposal will increase the government’s revenue.
“The strategy and philosophy are that we must drive the private sector in Antigua and Barbuda, create a dynamic local economy, encourage people to invest, and protect people who decide to invest,” said Lovell.
But the St. Kitts-based attorney, Dwyer Astaphan, says political manifestos have lost meaning in modern Antiguan and Barbudan society. They have become “a collection piece to be signed by a politician.
“In the present political culture, the manifesto has lost much of its significance, and I think it is just an event. What makes it worse for me is that a party in a little country like Antigua puts out a 127-page glossy document called a manifesto where the party knows full well only a fraction of the people will read,” he said.
He also argued that manifestos will not ultimately determine the outcome of the elections but rather “what happens day-to-day on the streets whether there are public meetings or one-on-one between individuals.”
Dame Lorna said plans are well advanced for staging the elections that will be observed by several local and international teams from the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the Organisation of American States (OAS), and the Commonwealth.
“The only thing left to be done, and we are working on those right now, are the registers that will be used in the polling stations…those are being printed because we start issuing supplies to presiding officers (Tuesday)”.
The Antigua and Barbuda Electoral Commission (ABEC) also dismissed as “ludicrous” allegations that people from Africa were being facilitated to vote in the election.
ABEC chairman, John Jarvis, acknowledged hearing of such reports that persons but insisted, “essentially, we at the Electoral Commission have been very thorough in so far as the process is concerned.
“For instance, the whole question of eligibility, we pay close attention to it, and this is why we sought to get from the scrutineers the type of diligence, as it were, to ensure that the people who come in to register are bonafide and minimizes the whole question of not too much traffic with regards to claims and objections,” said Jarvis.
“Of course, coming down to the wire, you have a situation where people go into all types of frenzy” regarding the registration of persons and Jarvis said, adding that “as we normally say to those folks who are making those objections, you have to bring proof to ensure what you are saying is legitimate and it can stand up in the court of law.”
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